In my unprofessional opinion, there is no way that Colman Domingo is not going to win his first Oscar for his performance as Joe Jackson in the upcoming Michael Jackson biopic. I know that's hard to believe, given that myself and the rest of the world have not seen the movie yet, but hear me out.
Source: @DiscussingFilm
Michael will have what Domingo's past two Oscar-nominated roles lacked: wide distribution and a built-in audience. Sing-Sing was supposed to have a wide release in the summer of 2024, but it ended up playing in only 191 theaters nationwide. Rustin was released on Netflix, but like Sing Sing, it's audience was niche. It's sad but true that a diminishing section of the movie-going population will go out of their way to see movies about a gay civil rights activist or prison theater groups. With the ever increasing price of going to the movies, people are unwilling to pay to see something unless they are incredibly interested in it. Everyone in the world knows who Michael Jackson is, and you can guarantee that Micheael is going to be seen by a huge group of people who have never seen a Colman Domingo movie.
When Michael is released, the whole world is going to see what Oscar fans (and Euphoria fans for that matter) have known for years: Colman Domingo is one of the best actors of his generation, and he deserves the highest rewards. You can tell from the few lines he has in the Michael trailer that he is going to disappear into this role and be totally unrecognizable, something the Oscar voters love to see. They also love when makeup and prosthetics aid in the process of disappearing into a role, especially for male actors (see Brendan Fraser in The Whale and Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour). He's also got the Oscar narrative of someone who might be a little overdue for recognition after earning two Best Actor nominations for performances in underseen films that could've gotten in the Oscar in other years. Considering he'll be in the historically less competitive Best Supporting Actor category, I'd be shocked if anyone but Domingo comes home with that trophy in 2027.
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